Calum Findlay, Gleadell’s fertiliser manager, comments on the fertiliser markets

Urea

It has been a slow week for global urea markets. Prices have continued to ease, although this week has shown the smallest fall since values began to slip three weeks ago, suggesting that the floor is not far away.

Small quantities have been booked at $350/t FOB Egypt this week, equating to roughly £285/t on farm. With supply constraints from major exporting origins no longer an issue, attentions turn to the demand outlook for the next shift in direction of the market.

Currently, demand across Europe remains low, as distributors are unwilling to take stock with farmers not buying. Asking prices for prilled urea have moved above $290/t FOB China, with significant demand expected to come from India and Pakistan supporting these higher levels.

Ammonium nitrate

Traditionally AN and urea markets have shared similar trends, but with increased demand from markets such as Brazil and the lack of new AN plants being developed, we are seeing a decoupling of these markets as AN stocks tighten.

In the UK prices continue to firm, with UK manufacturers moving levels up £3/t this week and further price increases are indicated for November and December. Demand remains quiet but, with 40-50% of the UK nitrate market still to be done and the window for spring delivery tightening, it is felt that the market will begin to pick up over the forthcoming weeks.

Phosphate and potash

We are starting to see numerous large enquires for NPKs indicating attentions are turning to spring requirements. Gleadell continues to offer spring grades on a range of delivery periods from now through until February and with finance available growers should strongly consider locking in at least some cover at these levels.