FEED WHEAT
·  DEFRA estimates the UK 2010 wheat crop at 14.83mln/t – this is working from an area of 1.93mln hectares and a yield projection of 7.68t/hectare, down 3% from last season’s 7.93t/hectare. We do not think this figure was achieved (particularly due to the very high yields DEFRA have forecast for Scotland where significant amounts are still being combined) and our figure is approx 14.4 mln/t.
·  Ukrainian wheat exports for the period 1 to 27 September are estimated at 1.178mln/t (487tmt wheat, 609tmt barley and 54tmt of maize). This is compared with 1.3mln/t exported in August and 0.764mln/t exported in July.
·  Ukrainian Ag.Ministry reports farmers have planted about 6mln hectares to winter grains for the 2011 harvest.  This is 71% of the planned 8.4mln hectares as estimated by the government, against  8.7mln planted last season.
·  Ukrainian Government have adopted a decision to limit combined exports of wheat, barley and maize to 3.0mln/t until the end of the year on an as yet unclear quota system.
·  Russian wheat exports were reported at 1.59mln/t in the first two weeks of August (prior to the export ban), on top of 1.75mln/t exported in July.
·  Statistics Canada sees Canadian all-wheat production in 2010 at 22.205mln/t, down from 22.66mln/t previously.
·  The bearish US corn stocks report, released last Thursday, was enough to send the markets into liquidation mode.  However, the USDA are due out Friday 8^th October their monthly US and World supply & demand reports, with most analysts expecting another drop in corn yield which, if reported at 160bu/acre, would negate the majority of the increased stocks. As ever, markets will take their next cue from the wise words of the USDA.  

OILSEED RAPE  

·    The US soybean market has drifted lower in the last week due to the lack of fresh supportive news. Harvest continues to progress well and yields are generally good, but all eyes are focussed on tomorrow’s USDA crop production report.
·    In Europe, the rapeseed market has stuttered and like the soy market drifted lower. At the time of writing, prices in the November Matif rapeseed contract are down €2 on the week which, given the rally in the Euro/US$, is a pretty good performance.  Currency has been a key factor in the domestic UK market this week as the falling £ has helped to underpin our prices.  We knew UK PLC was in a mess but it is now becoming apparent just how bad things really are! The new coalition Government seems to find 'black holes' in departmental budgets on a daily basis and the threat of a double dip recession stemming from the required austerity measures now looks to be a real possibility.  On this basis it seems difficult to be friendly towards the GBP£ which is good news for our farm gate prices.
·    New crop values had dipped, but we still remain quietly friendly towards 2011. The UK may have planted a potential record crop, but continental Europe has seen a small reduction in their sown area and the drilling has generally been late. The threat of winter kill and problems with the growing crop are all still to come and, with demand not going away, we currently find it difficult to be bearish to new crop.