The NFU has reacted angrily to proposals for Britain to pursue tariff-free trade at all costs post-Brexit. The proposals were made by economist Patrick Minford, a Cardiff University professor and member of the group Economists for Free Trade, who predicted a benefit to the country of £135bn from a “hard Brexit” that eliminated tariffs, and in a report from the right wing think tank Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), which recommended a policy of unilateral free trade once the UK leaves the EU.

The recommendations come at a time of great uncertainty over the terms of Brexit, and the impacts the UK’s withdrawal from the EU will have for the economy, policy environment and day to day life in Britain. There appears to be a split in Theresa May’s cabinet between ministers seeking to protect standards and restrict the scope of any future trade deals, and others wanting to open up trade deals to cover new areas, though this would be likely to erode food and environmental standards and lead to widespread job losses, by exposing the UK to cheaper imports, made under less exacting conditions.

On Tuesday, NFU President Meurig Raymond criticised suggestions that Britain would benefit from pursuing global free trade at all costs and unilaterally lowering tariffs. The NFU president said, “While others have raised serious questions over the assumptions and arguments made by both Professor Minford and the IEA, I have grave concerns over the implications for British food production. Under the scenarios they advocate, British farming would be severely damaged as cheaper imports are allowed in while British exports remain subject to high tariffs abroad.
 
“These arguments involve a very narrow economic analysis that fails to acknowledge the benefits farming delivers to the public outside the limited confines of food prices in shops. The British public needs a viable and productive farming sector to continue to maintain and enhance the countryside they value and to provide a safe and trusted, as well as affordable, supply of British food.”
 
The economists’ recommendations have not been widely accepted, even outside sectors like farming, which would stand to lose out under ‘absolute’ free trade. Economists, including Dr Monique Ebell from the National Institute of Social and Economic Research (NIESR) have warned that Prof Minford’s recommendations would trigger a ‘race to the bottom’ on standards. Prof Ebell told the BBC that the scenario envisaged by Minford and his fellow travellers “ignores decades of evidence on how trade actually works".
 
Commenting on Tuesday, NFU’s Mr Raymond said, “When it comes to trade policy after Brexit, the interests of the British public and of British farmers are best served through maintaining a deep trading relationship with the EU.
 
“Negotiating subsequent trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world should then be undertaken with due care and attention to ensure domestic industries are not unfairly undermined while opening up new opportunities for exporters abroad.
 
“In these uncertain times, and given the high levels of interest the public has in the way their food is produced and the impact it has on animal welfare and the environment, it is clear that the value of a thriving British farming sector to the British public far outstrips the narrow arguments for cheaper imports from overseas.”