World food stocks are set to rise this quarter, though hunger will remain an acute problem in many global regions due to inequitable distribution of resources and adverse weather events earlier in the year.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, which released its quarterly forecast covering agricultural production and food security, cereal production will increase by 3.2 per cent worldwide, totalling an estimated 2 419 million tonnes. The rise is mainly thanks to a bumper maize crop in the United States. Wheat and coarse grains are also in good supply, resulting in reductions in price last month, though yields are reportedly down in many global regions due to severe weather.

However, the Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, released yesterday, reveals that, despite a positive outlook elsewhere, countries in the Sahel continue to face serious challenges to food security due to locally high food prices and civil strife. Other countries, including Syria and Yemen are also experiencing increasing levels of food insecurity following prolonged civil strife. 35 countries also require food assistance, according to the FAO, including Haiti, North Korea, Iraq and Mali.

FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva commented on the report’s findings, "The situation in Yemen and Syria reminds us of the clear link between food security and peace. In this case, internal conflict is causing food insecurity. But, it works the other way around as well. Throughout the world we see crisis after crisis caused, in its entirety or in part, by the lack of food or disputes over natural resources, especially land and water.

"This only goes to show, again, that hunger today is mainly a problem of access. Millions of poor families worldwide lack the means to produce their own food or decent jobs and income to buy the food they need."

Although conditions have benefitted the United States, Central America and Asia, parts of South America have struggled under first drought, then flooding this year. Regions of Central and Eastern Europe also saw late frosts and drought affecting yields.

In the Commonwealth of Independent States, made up for former Soviet Union countries, dramatic declines have been forecast.

The European CIS states are expected to see a six percent decline in cereal production, bringing the predicted total to 148 million tonnes. Inclement weather during winter cropping is now making its presence felt in the Ukraine in particular. Wheat production in Ukraine is forecast at 14 million tonnes, nearly 40 percent below last year's bumper crop and well below the average of the past five years.

In the CIS in Asia, wheat production in Kazakhstan, the major cereal producer in the sub-region, has been estimated at 14.7 million tonnes, one-third below last year's record level.

World cereal stocks for crop seasons ending in 2013 are forecast to increase to 548 million tonnes, a rise of 7 percent from their opening levels and the highest since 2002. FAO analysts said, “This outlook is 4 percent (or 23.5 million tonnes) higher than was reported last month, entirely due to an increase in the forecast for world coarse grain inventories which now stand at 201 million tonnes -- up 20 percent from the previous season's low of 167 million tonnes.”

The FAO’s World Food Price Index, which measures prices of a range of staples, fell four per cent last month as abundance has led to food prices easing across the world.

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