The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation has predicted "strong growth" for global wheat, coarse grains and rice production in 2013. According to early forecasts published in the May issue of FAO's monthly Cereals Supply and Demand Brief, global production of these grains could rise to almost record levels.

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The forecasts are based on the assumption that more normal weather conditions observed around the world persist, following last year, which saw widespread drought and flooding markedly impacting upon production in the world's breadbaskets. This year, although conditions in some of the worst affected areas have returned to normal, some continue to be affected; Northern Europe looks set to endure another challenging year thanks to heavy rains late last year and unsettled weather throughout 2013. In the United States, the effects of the most severe drought in over 50 years proved slow to ease, though production is recovering markedly.

Nevertheless, FAO announced on Thursday (9th May) that global wheat production in 2013 is expected to reach 695 million tonnes, up 5.4 percent from last year's harvest and just 6 million tonnes short of record set in 2011. The Rome-based agriculture organisation added that, this year, coarse grains production is expected to overtake the record set in 2011 and reach 1,266 million tonnes. This new high represents a 9.3 percent increase on the 2011 record of 1,167 million tonnes.

Of this total, maize is forecast to account for about 960 million tonnes, some 10 percent up from 2012. The bulk of the increase is expected in the United States, the world's largest producer, where maize plantings are forecast to reach their highest level since 1936. Recovery from drought in the major CIS producing countries (including Russia, Belarus and Ukraine) should also contribute significantly to the record global production.

FAO said it "tentatively" foresees rice production in the 2013 season to rise to 497.7 million tonnes, 16 million tonnes above 2012 levels, with particularly large increases expected in India and Indonesia.

Despite the expected production increases, world cereal utilisation is expected to stagnate in 2012/2013, constrained by rising grain prices and faltering ethanol demand. Global cereal use is now forecast  to be 2,332 million tonnes, roughly unchanged from the 2011/12 level.

World cereal stocks by the close of seasons ending in 2013 were forecast at 505 million tonnes, up 1 percent (5 million tonnes) from the previous forecast, but some 3 percent (16 million tonnes) below their opening levels.

A sharp fall in world cereal trade is expected in 2012/13, involving all major cereals. At 304.4 million tonnes, it would be almost 1 million tonnes larger than forecast last month, but still representing a  decline of about 4 percent (13 million tonnes) from 2011/12.