Shortly after the European Commission raised forecasts for cereal production in the bloc, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation has predicted a significant rise, which, if realised, will make 2013's crop the second largest on record.  

Although FAO cautioned that "At this stage of the season, with the bulk of the coarse grains and paddy crops yet to be planted it is still too early for even a preliminary global cereal forecast for 2013," it said that, at this stage, activity and conditions point to a 28 million tonne increase on 2012 levels.

First forecasts for the 2013 wheat harvest point to production increasing to 690 million tonnes, up 4.3 percent on 2012. This would make 2013 the second largest crop on record, after 2011, according FAO's quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, released on Thursday (7th March).

In line with the EU Commission's predictions and early intimations from the UN organisation itself, FAO suggested the production hike would be driven by Europe, where increased plantings in response to high prices last year and improved conditions could lead to a significant rise. A recovery in yields in some breadbasket regions hit by drought or other adverse weather conditions, notably in the Russian Federation, could also improve the situation.

The outlook in the United States, while less favourable because of earlier drought conditions, has improved somewhat over the last few weeks, as rain and snow have helped quench parched areas of  Midwest and Great Plains.

FAO said prospects for the first 2013 coarse grain crops in the southern hemisphere are generally favourable and added "Rice prospects are also encouraging in several countries below the equator."

However, the UN's agriculture body reiterated that the situation could easily change, and showed that, in spite of the promising outlook for production, major issues of food insecurity persist in a number of countries around the world.

The Crop Prospects and Food Situation report also looked at a number of food insecurity hotspots. Around 4 million people in Syria are in urgent need of food and livelihood assistance, due to the effects of civil war.  Syrian refugees are also putting strain on other countries in the region. Conflict in the DR Congo has also displaced an estimated 2.7 m people and 6.4 m are suffering from a food crisis in the country.

In North Korea, arid conditions between May and June last year, followed by localised floods in July and August cut crop production and damaged agricultural infrastructure. The country is still chronically food insecure, according to FAO and an estimated 2.8 million people require food assistance.

There are also serious incidences of food insecurity in Mali and Sudan, where the effects of drought and conflict have threatened the food situation. In all, 36 countries worldwide require external assistance for food.

More information is available from FAO here