World cereal production estimates unveiled by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation remain virtually unchanged, with record cereal production of almost 2,500 million tonnes predicted for 2013.

The figure is almost 8.4 percent more than last year and some 6 percent above the previous record for world production set in 2011. According to the UN's quarterly Crop Prospects report, though the food security situation is forecast to increase food security in several parts of Africa and elsewhere is deteriorating.

Rains in West Africa, which arrived late and ended earlier than usual have affected  crop and pasture growth. FAO warned this could lead to "a new surge in food insecurity and malnutrition in… 2013/14."

The FAO Food Price Index, also published on Friday, remained stable in November. Food prices were virtually unchanged on the month, but 4.4 percent below November 2012 values. A sharp decline in sugar prices, which had risen on weather worries, almost offset a rise in oil prices. Cereal prices continued to ease, though meat and dairy remained stable.

Crop prospects

The latest estimates for world cereal production mostly reflect adjustments to estimates of maize output in the United States, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which became firmer towards the completion of the harvests.

Based on the latest figures, the overall increase in world cereal output this year comprises a rise of 7.8 percent in wheat production, of 12 percent for coarse grains, and of only 1 percent for rice.

Early prospects for the winter wheat crop, already planted in the northern hemisphere, to be harvested in 2014, are mostly favourable.

World cereal stocks are predicted to increase to 572 million tonnes by the close of the 2014 crop seasons, which is 13.4 percent, or nearly 68 million tonnes, more than in the previous year. This forecast is almost 9 million tonnes higher than reported in November, reflecting upward revisions to ending stocks of wheat and coarse grains, while ending rice inventories were reduced slightly.

The sharp expansion in world cereal stocks this season would result in the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio reaching 23.5 percent, well above the historical low of 18.4 percent registered in 2007/08.