AHDB’s Winter Planting Survey shows a decline in crop area as at 1 December 2015 across England and Wales, for the second year running. The changes look to be driven by economic and agronomic factors as planting conditions were again generally favourable last autumn.

The area of wheat and winter barley in England and Wales, plus oilseed rape and oats in England is estimated at 2.66Mha as at 1 December 2015, of which:

• Wheat, 1.66Mha
• Oilseed rape, 548Kha (England only)
• Winter barley, 376Kha
• Oats, 79Kha (England only)

The area of these four crops as at 1 December 2015 is estimated to have been around 100Kha lower than reported in December 2014 and 300Kha lower than December 2013. The area of crops as at 1 December 2015 is also 5% lower than the total area of wheat, winter barley, oilseed rape and oats harvested last summer.

Helen Plant, AHDB Senior Analyst, said: “Market conditions continue to challenge the economics of the whole rotation, but especially oilseed rape, which shows the largest declines year on year. While still an important break crop, the fall in area shows the increasing risks of growing oilseed rape are outweighing the potential rewards on offer from current forward prices.”

Increased interest in cultural controls for weeds and diseases, particularly black-grass, is also potentially a factor, along with continuing impacts of the three crop rule – acting as an incentive to hold land back for spring cropping or indeed fallow. The higher yields of winter crops are also worth comparatively less at lower prices – increasing the incentive to plant spring crops.

Wheat - At 1.66Mha, the wheat area in England and Wales is 3% lower than the total wheat area harvested in 2015 but similar to the 1.69Mha reported in last year’s winter planting survey (as at 1 December 2014). Without higher levels of late winter and spring plantings year on year, the 2016 England and Wales total wheat area is likely to be similar to that harvested in 2015. The crop remains the mainstay of many rotations.

Oilseed rape – The English area as at 1 December 2015 is estimated at 548Kha, 10% lower than the 611Kha harvested in 2015, of which 605Kha was winter sown. Unless spring plantings are substantially higher than in the last two years, this sets England up for the lowest oilseed rape area since 2009. The total area planted in 2009 was 536Kha, of which 493Kha was winter sown.

Winter barley - At 376Kha, the English and Welsh winter barley area is an estimated 2% smaller than the 383Kha harvested in 2015. Nonetheless, it remains above the 370Kha harvested in 2014 and at a historically high level, although there are regional differences.

Dependent on the level of spring barley plantings, especially in Scotland, the UK could be looking at a fourth consecutive large barley area. Spring barley has historically benefitted in years with lower winter cropping.

Oats – the oat area in England is estimated at 76Kha as at 1 December 2015. This is around 5Kha lower than the area reported in last year’s winter planting survey (81Kha), suggesting a fall in winter oat plantings for harvest 2016. It is also 23% lower than the total area of oats harvested in 2015, which is perhaps unsurprising as spring plantings are important to the total oat area. A lower winter oat area would put increased focus on spring cropping to avoid an overall fall in oat plantings in England.

The AHDB Winter Planting Survey has been a good indicator of the trends in winter cropping at the national level in recent years. Results for smaller crop areas such as oats or smaller regions should be treated with additional caution as they are subject to a higher level of uncertainty. AHDB will carry out a full planting and variety survey this spring on total areas for harvest 2016, with results released in the summer.

Results of the December Survey in Scotland are due to be released by the Scottish government on Tuesday 15 March. Combined with equivalent results from DARD for Northern Ireland, this will complete the UK winter cropping picture.

Estimates of the area as at 1 December in England and Wales are produced by applying percentage changes in each region to the most recent Defra June Survey of Agriculture. When comparing one year’s Winter Planting Survey to another, it’s important to bear in mind that they are produced from different June surveys.