Rapeseed:

The Ukrainian Agricultural Ministry has not changed their estimates for winter rapeseed crops. Offre & Demande Agricole (ODA) estimate total production to be between 0.9 and 1.15MT in 2012 compared to 1.43MT in 2011. The current crop ratings suggest 32.6% of total sown area is in good condition, 33.5% is rated satisfactory, and finally 33.9% is rated as poor to very poor. The government is now estimating winter rapeseed losses exceeding 35%, although ODA are estimating around 20% losses. This is expected to have a bullish effect on the market, where record low carryover stocks will be put under further pressure by the Ukraine’s low estimated production.

Wheat:

The 2012 Ukrainian winter wheat planting area is estimated at 6.6 million hectares, of which 85.3% is expected to have germinated. According to the statements of the Ukrainian Agricultural Ministry, 25.4% of the total area of winter wheat isrates as good to excellent, 40.6% is satisfactory and 34% is rated as poor.According to the ODA Ukrainian office (based in Odessa), wheat production for the 2012 harvest is seen at 14.2MT compared to 22MT seen in 2011.

As reported on the ODA UK twitter account (@ODAUKLtd) last Friday, Ukrainian grain traders may export only another 1.7MT of wheat before July. This would result in Ukrainian ending stocks around 8MT (Source: APK-Inform).

Maize:

Ukraine is expected to harvest a 20-year record maize crop in 2012 (25-28MT). It is also expected that 3.5 million hectares of potential winter losses will be mainly re-planted to maize (accounting for approximately 42% of total winter losses). ODA analysts say that the Ukraine maize harvest produced 21.8MT in 2011, up 83% compared to 2010.

Offre & Demande Agricole