In its latest report, French analyst Strategie Grains, abandoned hopes for a rise in EU wheat production this year. Although commentators had previously said frost damage to European crops would be minimal, analysts today announced that February frost, combined with the threat of drought in many wheat producing regions will impact on production.

Strategie Grains cut its estimate for the EU soft wheat harvest down to 126.8 million tonnes, a reduction of 5.9 million tonnes from original estimates; the new figure means estimates for this year’s crop have slipped below last years’ levels. The new forecast also has implications for the export market, as less wheat will be available for export.  

France and Germany, the top producers in the bloc, suffered from the largest downgrades due to February’s cold snap, though England’s wheat basket, East Anglia, is in potential jeopardy due to drought conditions for the second consecutive year.

Strategie estimated that 6 per cent of the area originally sown with winter crops will require replanting, after frost kill affected crops in February, when temperatures plummeted to -20 ^oC in parts of Europe.

The Strategie reductions follow cuts to estimates by French government office FranceAgriMer, which yesterday cut its forecast of French 2011/12 soft wheat.

However, the Strategie analysis presents positive outlook for spring crops, including barley, maize and sunflowers. Nevertheless, despite some much needed rainfall over European wheat producing regions this week, areas of France, England and Spain remain parched.

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