The month of March has been characterised by temperatures below the long-term average in northern and central Europe, and was one of the coldest months on record, reports the European Commission’s European Crop report of 22 April.

As a consequence there has been a significant delay in winter crop development and spring sowing in most of Europe, with the exception of the Mediterranean regions and around the Black Sea. Above-average precipitation was recorded in the Mediterranean region and parts of eastern Europe. Drier-than-usual weather conditions occurred in Denmark, southern Scandinavia, the Benelux countries, northern Poland, northern Germany and the north-western part of the British Isles.

Yield predictions remain average.

The report authors state that as the season advances crop model simulations are being increasingly used to forecast winter cereals. In general, the current prospects for the EU-27 yields remain average. While in northern and central Europe the likelihood of realizing full crop potentials is somewhat compromised by the long delays, it is still too early to revise the forecasts that have been made in the previous bulletin based on the temporal trends and averages of previous years.

In March the colder-than-normal temperatures, and temperature accumulation was well below the average in northern and central Europe. Negative average temperature anomalies in the range of 6°C were recorded in Germany, Poland, and north-eastern Europe, and in the range of 4°C in northern France, the Benelux countries, Denmark, the UK, northern Italy, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary and Ukraine. In some areas of these regions March was one of the coldest in our climatological records. For almost an entire month, minimum temperatures did not reach positive values in Germany, Poland, Denmark, the Czech Republic, northern Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. The coldest period was recorded between 12 and 14 March with minimum temperatures of -14°C in some areas of these regions, while crops where protected by snow. However, temperatures were close to and above average (+2 to +4°C) over the Mediterranean regions and around the Black Sea respectively. Colder conditions continued to characterise northern and central Europe until 10 April, when an increase in temperatures was recorded all over Europe. However, the cumulated active temperatures (Tbase=0°C) since the beginning of March remained below the long-term average (-100 to -150 GDD), and a very strong delay in the development of winter cereals has been recorded mainly in Germany, Poland, northern France, the Benelux countries, Denmark, the UK and the Czech Republic. Advanced development stages are simulated in regions around the Black Sea, especially in Turkey.

France

Important delays in crop development.

A cold spell experienced during March and April has affected the development of winter crops in the northern half of France. Conditions were near average for the southern regions.

A cold spell hit the northern half of France from March until mid-April, with average temperatures 2 to 3°C below seasonal values in Picardie, Champagne-Ardennes, Lorraine, and Centre. Overall cumulated rainfall in that period was similar to the long-term average, with abundant rainfall occurring in the past two weeks.

Soft wheat and winter barley show a significant delay in their development, as a consequence of the cold temperatures registered in northern France. This depicts an unfavorable forecast for both crops, which were already negatively affected by the difficult sowing conditions experienced in autumn. Yield expectations are currently slightly below the average, but weather conditions in the forthcoming weeks will be critical to evaluate more accurately yield potentials.

Durum wheat expectations, on the other hand, are on average, with no major constraints to date and favourable conditions created by the rainfall of the past weeks.

Germany

Prolonged winter dormancy after the coldest March on record

A delayed start to spring temperatures across Germany prolonged the winter dormancy period for crops and delayed spring sowings. March was the coldest month on record with constant low temperatures. Temperatures only started increasing towards mid-April.

Persistent low temperatures in March led to a prolonged dormancy period for winter cereals, and substantially delayed field activities and spring sowings. Minimum temperatures did not reach positive values for almost an entire month, albeit extreme frost did not occur and crops were still fully hardened. The coldest period was recorded between 12 and 14 March, with minimum temperatures of -14°C, while crops where protected by snow. The beginning of April continued to be chilly, with daily average temperatures only starting to climb over 0°C around 8- 9 April, peaking with a high of 25°C.

Precipitation during March was clearly below the norm, especially in the north of the country, with a deficit of more than 30 mm below average. The first days of April continued to be dry, but some precipitation was recorded with the change in air masses. Considering precipitation since the beginning of the year, a slight deficit is depicted only for the regions of Niedersachsen and Nordrhein-Westfalen.

Crop development is clearly delayed and, due to the extended crop dormancy period. Spring sowings are also delayed. It is too early in the season to evaluate whether the shortened crop cycle will have negative influences that cannot be compensated further in the season.

Poland

Very cold weather prolonged winter dormancy

The period from 1 March until 15 April was the coldest in our historical records, causing prolonged winter dormancy and postponing spring sowings.

Poland experienced a persistent cold spell from 8 March until 10 April. The cold weather, during which more than 30 days experienced average daily temperatures below 0^oC, led to a temperature accumulation of about half of the long-term average values. The rainfall accumulation over the entire country was higher than usual, and snow cover lasted longer than usual. The cold weather prolonged winter dormancy and, according to our simulations, crop growth started only after 10 April. Winter crop development is delayed by more than 20 days. Further additional delays could negatively affect crop development, and eventually lead to reduced yields. Furthermore, there is a delay in spring sowing that usually starts in the second half of March. The late sowing of spring cereals will shorten tillering and stem elongation stages. A reduced number of kernels per spike usually reduces the yield. However, the proper choice of seed variety and an increased sowing density might compensate the late sowing. We maintain our forecast from the previous bulletin, where yield figures are based on trend values, as it is too early to forecast the effects of these anomalies on the crop yields.

United Kingdom and Ireland

After a long cold and relatively dry March, crops are finally starting to resume their growth but are strongly delayed with respect to normal conditions.

As in the rest of northern continental Europe, the cold month of March has generated little accumulated temperatures over the UK and Ireland. Temperatures finally returned to normal around mid-April, along with a return of precipitation after a long dry period. These conditions have allowed winter crops to resume their growth. Overall, the main consequence of this cold spell is not related to any damage caused by the cold temperatures, but rather to a strong delay of the crop cycle. Spring-sown crops are also expected to have their cycles shifted further along the year due to delayed sowing and emergence as a result of the cold spell. For all crops, while the likelihood of realising their full potential is somewhat compromised by these long delays, it is still too early to revise the forecasts that have been made in the previous bulletin based on the temporal trends of previous years.

Ukraine

Extreme moist and cold period in the north-western regions

The current period from mid-March to mid-April is one of the coldest and wettest on record for north-western Ukraine in our 37-year archive. Thick snow cover (>20 cm) was prevalent in these regions, which melted only in the first days of April. The south-eastern half of Ukraine was less cold, and there rainfall was only slightly above average.

Following the normal thermal conditions of the first half of March, Ukraine suffered freezing conditions after mid-March. Temperatures remained 6-8°C below average in the north-western areas and the milder southern areas were also 2-4°C colder than average. During the first part of April, although the very cold weather eased considerably, the below-average thermal conditions persisted in the north-western regions, whereas the southern and south-eastern parts of Ukraine warmed up quickly and the daily temperatures greatly exceeded the long-term average.

Due to the low temperatures, winter cereals remained in the dormant stage or showed minimal vegetative activity in the north-western half of Ukraine. In the warmer southern regions the phenological development and biomass accumulation is more advanced.

European Russia

A very long winter

In March, thermal conditions were significantly below average in most of Russia with the exception of southern regions where warmer-than-average weather supported the development of winter crops. Precipitation was plentiful for most of European Russia, leading to replenished soil moisture levels.

During March, cold winter weather characterised the northern and central areas of Russia that were under thick snow cover. In these regions the temperature remained below the average by 3-7°C. On the contrary, a positive thermal anomaly characterised the southern regions until 24-25 March, when a severe cold air intrusion reached this zone and reduced temperatures below the average by 3-6°C until the first days of April. Temperatures increased significantly in the Southern, North-Caucasus, Volga and Central Districts in the first part of April.

The dry weather conditions combined with above-average temperatures allowed for the sowing of spring crops in southern Russia. Due to the persistence of snow cover and cold weather conditions, winter cereals are mostly underdeveloped (especially in the Volgogradskaya and Saratovskaya regions, also partially due to a dry autumn) and only the area between the Black and Caspian Sea shows advanced crop development and above-normal biomass accumulation.

See full MARS report here