The latest MARS European crop report shows a positive outlook for winter sown crops.  In general, prospects for the new season are promising.

Winter crops are generally in good shape and well developed in the EU due to the mild winter conditions. At this stage of the season the forecasts are based on the historical trend or average values.

In most of the EU-28, temperature conditions were close to the long-term average during the period of review (1 February-15 March). North-eastern Europe experienced significantly warmer-than-usual conditions, with anomalies w.r.t the long-term average exceeding 4°C. Significantly drier-than-usual conditions (with precipitation less than 50% of the long-term average) occurred over the western Iberian Peninsula, where soil water availability is becoming a concern; as well as in eastern Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland, where soil moisture contents are still satisfying. Significantly wetter-than-usual conditions, in several places associated with water logging, were observed in north- eastern Spain, in the Italian Peninsula, the Balkans and central-western Turkey.

France: generally, conditions are favourable for winter crops, and the season has started well.

Germany: for central and southern Germany, model results show a slight delay in the development of winter crops. Precipitation between the beginning of December and mid-March generally remained below the long-term average for most of Germany, with the exception of the north. However, the current outlook for the season is positive.

Poland: since December, temperatures stayed largely above average and temperature accumulation is 50% higher than during a normal year. This year soil moisture levels started similarly to last year, which had some record yields for winter cereals.

UK: winter crop development is around average in the United Kingdom, but slightly delayed in Ireland. The overall outlook is positive.

Ukraine: the main concern is low soil moisture levels. These dry conditions had a particular impact on the emergence of winter cereals, as rainfall was sparse after the sowing. Most of the fields that suffered from dry conditions are expected to be re-sown. According to T. Adamenko of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, 8% of the area of winter crops has been lost. Apart from that, the outlook is positive and, given the investments and technical improvements of recent years, yields are expected to follow the trend.

Turkey: temperatures in Turkey have been mainly above the long-term average since 1 December, except for a cold spell that affected the entire country from 9 to 11 January, during which minimum temperatures dropped below -20oC in parts of central-eastern Turkey and frost-kill damage is likely in parts of central-eastern areas. Precipitation during the same period was well distributed, and the cumulated values are above or close to the long-term average, with the exception of some north-eastern areas where precipitation remained below average (e.g. Dogu Karadeniz). Our models suggest mainly average or slightly advanced development of winter cereals.

Belarus: conditions have been generally favourable for winter crops, which are well advanced in development, and the outlook is positive.

European Russia: the start of the winter crop season was unfavourable in several regions of southern and central Russia. Initial poor germination and emergence due to dry and cold autumn conditions, and then the weak crop stands were hit by frosts during late autumn and early winter while they were still inadequately protected by snow. As a consequence, it is likely that considerable areas will have to be re-sown in springtime in the Near-Volga, Central and Southern Okrugs. However, winter conditions were milder than usual, giving good conditions for the crops that withstood the earlier set-backs, but the picture will be clear only after the melting of the snow cover.

The full report can be seen here