In general, the current prospects for EU-27 yields remained close to the average. Soft  wheat has been slightly revised downwards at the EU-27 level to 5.54t/ha, mainly due to lowered yield expectations for the UK and Ireland, as well as for the Baltic countries, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland and Denmark. These downward revisions were not compensated by the increased yield forecasts for the Iberian Peninsula.

Forecasted rapeseed yields were revised slightly downwards for the EU-27 to 3.06 t/ha, mainly due to a more negative outlook for the UK, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia, which was not compensated by the improved forecast for Poland and the slight improvement for Germany.

In contrast, for winter barley, a major upward revision for Spain and minor increases for large producers such as Germany and France, largely compensated the downward revision of forecasted yields in many small and some medium-sized producers, mainly in central and eastern Europe (e.g. Romania, Poland, Bulgaria). Together, this resulted in a practically unaltered overall EU-27 forecast for this crop.

France

Winter crop development speeds up after a cold start to the season

Temperatures increased from mid-April, benefiting crop development. Recent rainfall in the southern half of the country has created favourable conditions for winter cereals.

In the northern half of France cold temperatures extended up to the first part of April with daily temperatures on average 3°C below seasonal values. However, an increase in temperature during the second part of April in all regions has boosted vegetation growth.

Remote sensing indicators suggest a much more favourable outlook in the northern half of the country than a few weeks ago, although there is still a noticeable delay in crop development of winter cereals compared to the average. Yield expectations for winter crops remain slightly below average due to the delay in their development. Forecasts for durum wheat have been revised higher due to the plentiful rain in the south. Sowing conditions for summer crops were generally favourable. Early sunflower sowings have been delayed to mid-April in Poitou-Charentes, however, as a result of the abundant rainfall experienced from mid-March.

Germany

Crop development is catching up, average yields are forecast

The significant delay at the end of March has mostly been recuperated and a boost in vegetative growth has been observed since mid-April. Spring sowing started with a slight delay but the weather was favourable for a prompt germination. Lack of precipitation in north-west Germany is a concern but beneficial rains are forecast for the region.

With the late arrival of spring in the second half of April, accumulated temperatures are now about average all over Germany and crop growth has partially recovered. Winter wheat development simulations show a slight delay and rapeseed development stages are simulated as being average.

April was a particularly dry month in Nordrhein-Westfalen, Niedersachsen and Schleswig-Holstein, which are lacking rain since the beginning of the year. On the positive side this means less disease pressure, but rain is now urgently needed to prevent yield losses. Drier-than-usual conditions also persisted in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Brandenburg, but in those regions the overall precipitation since the beginning of the year is close to average.

Winter wheat is now at the heading stage, but total biomass accumulation is rather low. The yield forecast is now close to averag, but could possibly improve if no adverse weather conditions occur. The same is true for barley, with forecasted yields close to average. Rapeseed, which is at the flowering stage, so far undisturbed by rains, and shows in general a good leaf expansion despite the rapid growth rates since mid-April. The yield forecast has been slightly raised compared to the last bulletin and is in line with last year’s yield level.

Poland

Mild weather with average rainfalls

Mild weather and average rainfall stimulated crop growth and development and created good conditions for the sowing of summer crops and for late spring sowing. Winter crops, especially rapeseed, also responded well to the improved weather conditions but yield indicators are still below average.

Temperatures across the country were milder than average and rainfall accumulation was about average. The rainfall pattern was favourable for the sowing of summer crops and for late spring sowing.

Winter crops reacted to the milder weather with accelerated growth and development. Rapeseed shows the highest growth rates, while winter cereals are still delayed. Moreover, the milder weather and sufficient rainfall enables crops to partially recover from the long period of low temperatures and reduced growth rates experienced in winter and early spring. The weather forecast predicts a continuation of the favourable conditions.

Spring crop development is delayed due to the late sowing. Summer crops are in the initial stages of development.

Our forecast for winter and spring crops is now based on crop simulations. The predicted yields for winter cereals are slightly lower than in our last forecast except for soft wheat. The spring crops that were sown in optimal agronomic conditions are early in the season and average yields are forecast. Summer crops forecasts are based on the trend.

United Kingdom and Ireland

Delay in the growth cycle maintained

Growth cycle remains delayed for all crops leading to high uncertainty in yield forecasts

Meteorological conditions for the period reviewed are characterised by average temperatures, above-average precipitation in Ireland and Scotland, below-average precipitation in England and Wales, and above-average solar radiation, particularly in the East. These conditions have allowed for a steady growth, but crops continue to lag 2-3 weeks behind with respect to both crop development and biomass accumulation, and it remains unclear as to whether or not they can catch up.

Crop growth and development are particularly retarded in Ireland. External reports in England also indicate great disparity in winter crop status between early and late-sown fields. The former were strong enough to withstand the adverse winter/spring conditions while the latter are struggling, have limited-yield potential and have partly been abandoned or replaced by spring/summer crops. For rapeseed the area estimate has already been revised downwards. The yield forecast has been revised downwards for rapeseed in the UK, for winter barley in Ireland and for wheat in both Ireland and the UK. It is acknowledged that the unusual conditions translate into high uncertainty of these forecasts. For spring crops, the estimates based on the trend are maintained.

Ukraine

Winter wheat yield forecast slightly revised down due to lack of rainfall

Crop phenological development has speeded up due to above-average temperatures and is very advanced in southern areas. Most of Ukraine received only very little rainfall since mid-April, leading to low soil water reserves under the winter crops. The actual yield outlook for wheat remains positive, but rain is needed to realise potential.

The average temperature was 2 to 4°C higher than usual for most of Ukraine, and up to 4 to 5°C higher in south western areas. From the end of April, extremely high daily temperatures of almost 30°C were recorded. Rains became scarce and remained below 5 mm in most of the country. Significant areas in the central and southern zones received no rainfall at all.

The long winter and overly wet soil conditions during early spring prevented the timely sowing of spring barley and sugar beet in the northern and western regions, while elsewhere sowing was carried out on or even before schedule. After mid-April the dry weather conditions were favourable for the sowing of maize and sunflowers.

For winter crops, the yield forecast is based on crop growth simulation models. These show that crop development is considerably advanced in the southern regions, where winter wheat has reached the flowering stage. In the western and northern provinces, however, crop development is delayed and wheat is still in the heading phase. Simulations indicate an unfavourable deficit in the soil moisture content of winter cereals, therefore the yield expectations of winter cereals was slightly lowered. The sharp contrasts between the southern and eastern areas on the one hand and the northern and western areas on the other are clearly visible on remote sensing images.

European Russia

Weather is favourable for sowing, and winter crops are in good condition

The temperature was higher than average for most of Russia from the beginning of April. Precipitation remained below the long-term average in southwest European Russia, while the eastern territories received moderately more rainfall than usual. So far the wheat yield expectations are above average, but, for winter wheat, a normal water supply is crucial during the yield formation stage in May as precipitation in June tends to have little benefit to the final yield.

The past month was characterised by near-normal but variable thermal conditions until 25 April, when temperatures increased to 3-5°C above average in southern and southwest Russia, the main winter-wheat-growing region. Precipitation remained below average in southwest Russia resulting in favourable sowing conditions. The sowing of spring crops was considerably early and is progressing faster than in other years. Exceptionally accelerated crop development has been observed especially in a zone between the Black and Caspian Seas due to the high temperature accumulation. According to our simulations, winter wheat is flowering and, in smaller areas north of the Caucasus, grain filling has started. Due to inadequate rainfall and the increased water consumption of winter cereals, the soil moisture dropped below average in most of southern Russia. Nevertheless, the modelled winter wheat results show good biomass accumulation.

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