Analysis from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre suggests this year's total cereal production in the EU-27 will be well above 2012 levels, and rise above the five year average, in spite of the unusually prolonged winter for western and central Europe and heavy rainfall in May and June.

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Using data up to 10th June and an advanced crop yield forecasting system, JRC scientists were able to estimate yields for the main crops throughout the EU and identify the areas where problems persist and crops are stressed.  

Although for most of the EU, winter 2012/13 was an average one, the months from March until May were generally colder and wetter than usual, especially in western and parts of central Europe. The start to spring was delayed by a number of weeks across most of the continent, with the only exceptions being the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions.

The heavy rain seen this spring came at a beneficial time from crops in most regions; in Spain in particular, this year's conditions are expected to lead to record yields of certain crops. Spanish barley, which accounts for a quarter of EU spring barley production, is forecast to yield 40 percent above the five year average. Warm weather across the Mediterranean and Black Sea has also provided a boost for crops.  

The yield forecast for cereals (wheat, barley, maize, other cereals) is 5.2 tonnes per hectare across the EU (excluding new entrant Croatia), more than 5 percent higher than last year and slightly above the five year average. Driven by high hopes for the Spanish crop, barley yields are forecast higher; Romania and Bulgaria also have promising crops.

Sunflower and grain maize are also forecast much higher than last years' levels (+14.0% and +16.3% respectively), though JRC acknowledged that its forecasts were made at an early stage of the sunflower and maize season.

Conditions seen this year could lead to recovery in meat production

In addition to the JRC forecast, the European Commission published its three-yearly Short Term Agricultural Outlook today, stating that the higher EU cereals harvest could bring market relief and higher stocks in the marketing year 2013-14. However, poor pasture and forage conditions in Central and Western Europe are expected to strongly affect milk supply, in addition to continued declines in meat production.

Even so, analysts speculated this week that the good harvest expected in the Northern hemisphere could lead to lower feed prices and higher margins for livestock producers, generating an increase in meat and milk production in 2014, and potentially reversing long-standing declines in production in the EU.