After a slight swing towards the ‘Remain’ camp, and a reduction in the number of people yet to make their minds up on the issue last month, June’s EU poll from Farming Online shows a massive leap in the number of respondents wanting Britain to leave the EU.

In April, the NFU Council published a resolution stating that it believes British farmers’ interests would be best served within the EU. The UK’s major farm unions have all backed the Remain camp ahead of next week’s vote, but have refused to campaign on the issue and spoken out against ‘empty rhetoric’ coming from both sides of the Brexit debate; both camps have been criticised for using negative campaign messages and scare tactics, without giving “real answers” to people’s concerns.

Even so, sentiment amongst the farming community has been difficult to pin down, with a survey of NFU members’ responses published in May suggesting the largest portion of respondents were undecided (with Remain supporters outnumbering Leave voters), whilst other polls from the farming press have shown a majority in favour of Brexit, and the results of a survey of 3,000 farmers released on Wednesday by the National Farm Research Unit showed 34% in favour of staying in the EU, 38% wanting to leave and 28% undecided.

On Tuesday, a poll of the general public by research agency TNS gave the Leave campaign a 7% lead (47% for Brexit, 40% Bremain and 13% undecided/ would not vote).

June poll - Majority backs ‘leap into the dark’

Results from previous Farming Online polls, which each ran for a week and gathered between 350 and 450 responses had showed a slight, but steady increase in support for the Remain vote ahead of the June poll, whilst the Leave vote stayed around the same, with a higher proportion of farmers backing the Leave camp. The results to June were as follows:

• In February 49% of respondents said they would opt for ‘Brexit’, whilst 34 said they would choose to remain part of the EU and 17% percent were still undecided.
• In April, 51% said they would like Britain to leave the EU, 37% would prefer to remain, and 12% remained unsure.
• In May, 50% were in favour of Brexit, 41.5% want Britain to remain part of the EU and 8.5% were undecided.

However, June’s results show 64% in favour of Britain leaving Europe, 33% wishing to remain and only 3% undecided, with one week to go before the vote (see below for graphs giving a detailed breakdown of the responses).

The June poll will remain open until just before the referendum, and respondents will be allowed to change their answers from Wednesday, to account for any shift in intentions.

NFU wants ‘Real answers’ to Brexit questions

In a debate on the EU at the Cereals Event in Cambridgeshire, On Wednesday, NFU President Meurig Raymond said campaigners on both sides should give clearer answers to pertinent questions around the Brexit issue. Mr Raymond’s statement echoes calls made by Farmers’ Union of Wales president Glyn Roberts at the Union’s AGM earlier this week.  

The NFU president said both campaign groups have left a lot of questions unanswered for the farming community. He said, “In the week before the EU referendum, the questions we have been asking from the outset remain unanswered by both sides.

He said union advisors and economists had scrutinised promises made by both camps, and raised serious questions, elaborating, “If we stay in, how will our concerns about EU regulation, a better CAP and science-based product approvals be met? If we leave, the Vote Leave campaign stated all current payments to the UK from the EU budget - including those to farmers - would be maintained until 2020. How can the Vote Leave campaign guarantee that their promises would be delivered?

“The NFU’s own rough calculations on Vote Leave’s spending promises suggest that more funding for the NHS, removal of VAT on fuel, reduction in Council Tax would amount to £112 billion. This is more than 10 times our net EU budget contribution. This calculation ignores the potential reduction in GDP as a result of Brexit. According to the Institute of Fiscal Studies a one per cent reduction in GDP would require £14 billion of public spending cuts or tax increases.”

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Breakdown of results from June Poll by sector:

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Comparison of results from May and June polls:

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