Forthcoming welfare legislation, which will come into force from January next year, May result in a five to ten per cent decline in the European pig sector, according to British pig lobbying body BPEX.

BPEX analysts also suggest the price of some pig products, including bacon, could rise by 20 per cent and finished pig prices could rise by 10 per cent following the introduction of new, landmark welfare laws in the EU, which would see a partial ban on gestation crates and other considerations being made. The stalls are already banned in the UK and Sweden. However, the National Pig Association has said the change could benefit many European producers.

New welfare law is expected to impact most severely on farmers in Spain, where there is a significant amount of pig production, but the effects of the economic downturn are being acutely felt. Problems accessing financing will prove to be the major reason for the drop-off, but rising input costs, which are eating into producers margins across a range of sectors throughout the EU will also contribute.

Although currently just over half of the 27 EU member states are expected to be compliant with the new welfare laws come January, industry groups have praised the Commission for taking a stricter approach than it did last year in advance of the cage ban for poultry producers.

The NPA said that, thanks to the tariff wall, which will offer partial protection from lower welfare imports from third countries, European producers could start to see better returns following the implementation of the welfare laws.

Nevertheless, a 10 percent drop in pig numbers could threaten the EU’s export capabilities, rendering the EU a net importer of pork products.

Following the outbreak of the Schmallenberg virus, Russia, one of the EU’s main export destinations, banned imports of pork from affected countries, despite there being no evidence that the disease affects pigs.

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