The latest estimates from European farmers’ association Copa Cogeca show cereal production is likely to be down in the EU for the 2012/2013 harvest. The organisation’s analysts predict a 1.4 per cent drop in cereal production, despite a 1 per cent increase in plantings this season.

The declines are thought to be due to poor and erratic weather conditions which have plagued much of the EU since the beginning of the year. Frost kill and drought, which were a problem for producers throughout Europe forced farmers to re-sow over 1.5 million hectares this year.

Although the switch to spring cropping proved a relief for many farmers, problems with the availability of commercial seed would have spelled disaster were it not for farm saved seed.

Nevertheless, early reports show crops in the UK appear to be doing well, despite the effects of the wettest June on record, which led to flowing in the South West and North East. Current indications show that cereals in the UK’s major growing regions have maintained above average levels of green biomass despite unpredictable weather.

However, conditions which have allowed crops to grow may also lead to some complications; heavy rainfall during flowering for crops including oilseed rape will lead to a wider spread of maturity dates, complicating harvest and increasing uncertainty over yields. The conditions have also favoured slugs and certain diseases, including fusarium, said to be at its highest risk level in a decade, which is posing a threat to cereal crops.

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