Hot weather, dryness and disruption of seasonal rains could be laying the foundations for a ‘global drought’ according to several alarming reports from around the world.

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Figures from US observatory NOAA show that May 2015 was the warmest since records began in 1880, topping off the world’s warmest spring on record. Average world temperatures in May were almost 1oc above 20th Century averages.  

A full NOAA report on June weather is expected next week, but provisional figures show that June 2015 was the second warmest on record across the contiguous United States, causing drought in the South-East and North-West of the country to worsen. Record and near-record temperatures along the Western seaboard also affected California, the country’s most populous state and main horticultural producer, which has suffered under a multi-year drought.

A persistent drought has also affected central parts of Canada, with Albertan farmers claiming they are dealing with the driest season for 50 years. Some reports suggest that major crop output from Canada could be down by 25 percent year-on-year due to the effects of the prairies’ first severe drought since 2002. In the Caribbean, too, Puerto Rican authorities have introduced restrictions on water and dry conditions in Jamaica have caused problems for coffee growers. Farmers in Brazil (also experiencing the most severe drought in half a century) and Northern Chile are also feeling the effects.

On top of the bleak meteorological assessments, two papers released in mid-June by NASA researchers warned that the world could be on an irreversible course towards global drought as a third of all groundwater aquifers are being exploited faster than they can replenish themselves. Aquifers in China, Australia, India, the United States and France are being drained at an unsustainable rate, according to the NASA scientists.

Relief on the horizon?
 
However, forecasters this week said that a strong El Nino system could provide relief in some parts of the Americas later this year, including easing the pain in drought-stricken California.

On Friday, forecasters predicted a strong El Nino, which could last until spring 2016. As a result of abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, the phenomenon is expected to last throughout winter 2015, with rainfall and other associated effects in the US becoming more pronounced from Autumn onwards.

Although there remains a deal of uncertainty around the strength of El Nino and the weather effects it will have, the phenomenon tends to increase the likelihood of a colder, drier winter in northern Europe, and wetter winter weather in the Amercias.  

For California, though, even if El Nino does bring relief this winter, it is unlikely to resolve the state’s long-term water issues; drought-stricken California, which supplies huge proportions of the US’s dairy, fruit and vegetable crops, relies on groundwater for 60 percent of its fresh water needs, and experts warn that this situation cannot continue. Likewise, groundwater overexploitation frequently occurs in the most agriculturally productive areas, and as long ago as 2012 international analysis showed that demand for water had outstripped supply in many key growing regions.