The final 2010/11 UK cereal supply and demand balance sheet, published on the 27 September, saw changes to the usage and stocks data for the completed 2010/11 season. Barley use is up on a reduced use of wheat in feed as a result of higher prices.

For the September 2011 estimates, Defra reviewed historic balance sheets from 2008/09 and 2009/10 whilst considering the final version of 2010/11 balance sheet. Defra said, “Analysing the previous year’s estimates it was felt necessary to make minor amendments to stocks and animal feed data to bring these more in line with the evidence now available.”

The full data tables can be viewed here.

Overall availability of wheat has been increased by 117,000t to 17.9Mt following the upward revision of the opening stocks to 2.03Mt (2.76Mt ‘09/10).

Wheat usage by the animal feed sector is seen at 6.20Mt, down 159,000t on May and 181,000t (-3%) on the revised 2009/10 figures. Reasons for less wheat being fed include shorter and more efficient fattening, good grass availability and higher use of barley in rations. Livestock data shows that cattle are being slaughtered at lower weights as farmers attempt to grasp high prices whilst they are available and avoid high feed costs.

Commercial end-season stocks are seen 25% lower than 2009/10, at 1.53Mt. This is 18,000t higher than the May estimates but this increase should be taken in the context of the overall balance sheet particularly considering the upward adjustments to the opening stocks.

Overall barley availability is estimated 29,000t higher than in May at 6.95Mt, a result of a 20,000t increase in imports to 125,000t (up 45% on 2009/10) and 9,000t increase in opening stocks following minor adjustments to the 2009/10 balance sheet.

Barley included in animal feed rations has been revised up 89,000t from May estimates to 3.40Mt following indications of barley substituting for wheat in rations. Barley commercial end-season stocks are now seen at 870,000t, 86,000t lower than the May estimates.