France - ODA has previously anticipated a loss in winter crops of up to 5% of France’s national area following a survey of its French customers at the beginning of March - equating to approximately 2MT.  Since this survey, some of the eastern regions of France have reported losses of up to 30% of wheat acreage, meaning the decline in French production could be much greater.

Poland - Melting snow in Poland over the last few days has allowed damage to the country’s winter crops to be assessed more precisely. A survey from the ODA Poland office has confirmed 20-30% losses of area in the west of the country and 10-20% in the central region. These regions are the major production areas for wheat in Poland.

Germany - Weather conditions in Germany are not that dissimilar to those seen in the west of Poland and should therefore have a similar impact. ODA’s sources are suggesting a loss in area of between 6 and 7%.

Ukraine - In Ukraine, a crop tour led by the ODA Ukraine office, is less pessimistic than the government’s predications, but is still considering 25% losses in winter area.

Russia - Finally in Russia, major crop damage seems to be most prevalent in the south of thecountry, with up to a 30% potential reduction in yield. The rest of the country seems to be in a more ‘normal’ situation.

As a result of this information, Europe could potentially lose between 5 and 6MT in production compared to previous estimates, and 2MT less than last year’s production. Even though the area lost to winter kill will mainly be re-planted with spring cereals, it seems that the European markets have notsufficiently integrated this information, especially as the yield potential of the remaining areas are still questionable.