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This quarter’s briefing document examines the main points influencing the outlook for its arable farms. Regional Farms Manager Nick Shorter said: “As a company managing and providing agronomy services to a wide range of businesses, we have to keep an eye on the overall picture, and manage our businesses accordingly.

“We are sharing some of the key trends which are influencing our decision-making on farm at the moment.”

The effects of high levels of disease remain high on the agenda.  As does planning to control black-grass in 2012/13, with the possibility that some areas may become ‘uncroppable’:

• Highest spring rainfall on record has led to disease levels in crops not seen for 25 years
• Many crops have had additional fungicides applied at a T4 equivalent
• Septoria has been absolutely rampant with some varieties in certain locations completely defoliated
• Ear disease and fusarium complexes are at incredibly high levels
• Lessons from this difficult year must shape plans for the future, including:
  • As later drilled crops remained much more disease free, so serious thought needs to be given to drill timings and autumn resources
  • A robust growth regulation programme has been key to keeping cereal crops with higher levels of stem-based disease standing in turbulent weather conditions
  • Robust rates of fungicide and early use of SDHI chemistry has proved successful
  • Ear disease in spring barley is very high, particularly where game cover or forage maize is nearby and there has to be a concern with fusarium-linked malting quality failures
  • Yield potential is being eroded on a daily basis as poor weather hampers harvest
  • Crop and soil conditions could well be very wet at harvest and resource planning for combine capacity as well as drying and storage provision will be vital
  • Industry gross margins from harvest 2012 are under severe pressure from disease pressure and lost yield potential, adding to the financial pressure where high rents have been paid

Black-grass

• Complete re-think of black-grass strategy is required in some parts of the country where ineffective autumn herbicide programmes combined with the failure of Atlantis has led to huge weed populations and some crops being sprayed off.
• This challenge may will ultimately change crop rotations and drilling timings; it could potentially render some areas uncroppable
• Uplift in the cereals market price is welcome and will go some way to mitigate yield shortfall. However, a higher percentage of the harvest will be needed to meet any forward sales, contracted at lower prices.

Sugar beet

• Sugar beet crops are still under pressure on light land with continued slow development
• There is a concern over sugar levels due to lack of sunlight
• Ultimately it is likely to be an average year for sugar beet

Potatoes and onions

• Blight pressure has been immense with the need for very frequent spraying
• Circa 2% of the potato crop has been lost due to waterlogging and circa 5% has not been planted due to wet conditions
• Potato market could be tight for supply as early lifts do not look promising
• Levels of mildew are a concern in onion crops

• Travelling conditions are restrictive in all crops at the moment

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