Early figures from the University of East Anglia (UEA) show 2014 is on course to be one of, if not the warmest year on record both globally and for the UK. Recent research from the Met Office suggests breaking the existing global and UK temperature records is much more likely due to human influence on the climate.

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In late September, scientists looking at the impacts of climate change in Australia said they had discovered clear indications of human influence on heatwaves and drought. Dr Markus Donat, one of the experts who contributed to a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), commented, "When it comes to what helped cause our hottest year on record, human-caused climate change is no longer a prime suspect, it is the guilty party. Too often we talk about climate change impacts as if they are far in the future. This research shows they are here, now."

However, though the UK has been subjected to several bouts of extreme and unsettled weather in recent years, experts in Britain suggested that 'attribution' (establishing the causes behind certain climatological patterns) is harder in climates such as our own. Even so, Professor Rowan Sutton, lead author another paper appearing in the special edition of BAMS, said, "Climate change has increased the odds of hot summers in the UK. Summer 2013 was a good example, and Britain should expect more hot summers in the future, although not every year."

Early figures suggest global record possible

Met Office and UEA scientists have said the world average temperature for January to October is above the long-term trend (measured from 1961-1990). Their data was backed up by a statement from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Thursday.

Although there are still two more months of data to add, the 2014 average is currently the warmest on record (just above 2010), making this year the warmest since 1850. UEA suggested that the final temperature will be very close to the Met Office's forecast, issued in late 2013.

Colin Morice, a climate monitoring scientist at the Met Office, commented, "Record or near-record years are interesting, but the ranking of individual years should be treated with some caution because the uncertainties in the data are larger than the differences between the top ranked years. We can say this year will add to the set of near-record temperatures we have seen over the last decade."

Phil Jones, research director of UEA’s Climatic Research Unit, added, "Spatially, 2014 has so far been warmer than the 1961-1990 average almost everywhere, the main exception being central and eastern parts of North America. For Europe, many countries in northern and eastern parts will likely have had near-record warm years."

UK’s run of warm months makes record likely

The UK's mean temperature from 1 January to 25 November is 1.6 °C above the long term average, which means this year is currently the warmest in the country since 1910, potentially beating 2006.

Every month except August has been above average temperature in the UK, but no single month has set a temperature record. Instead, the year has been consistently warm.

Although a cold December might mean 2014 is not the warmest year on record, CRU climate scientist Prof Tim Osborn added that long-term trends show a clear pattern. Prof Osborne said, "The last decade has been the warmest period in our 165-year-long record, yet during this decade there has been no clear warming at the Earth's surface. Coming at the end of this warm decade, record warmth in 2014 would be of significant interest but one year isn't enough to end the warming pause."

Using climate models, Met Office scientists looking at 'attribution' have investigated the likelihood of such increased temperatures in the absence of human activity. They found human activity is almost certainly behind the rise.

Peter Stott, head of Climate Attribution at the Met Office, said, "Our research shows current global average temperatures are highly unlikely in a world without human influence on the climate. Human influence has also made breaking the current UK temperature record about ten times more likely."

As well as being amongst the warmest years on record, 2014 has been one of the wettest. In the UK, 1162 mm of rain fell between 1 January and 25 November. If rainfall remains average for the rest of the year, 2014 will be the UK's 4^th wettest year on record, but a very wet December could break the record of 1337 mm, set in 2000.