Mikhail Semenov and Peter Shewry suggest heat stress during flowering may have a bigger impact on the wheat yield in Europe than drought in a modelling study published in Scientific Reports. The two said their work highlights the need for crop breeders to prioritise the development of wheat varieties that are resistant to high temperature around flowering. image expired

The scientists said new varieties of wheat will need to be cultivated to cope with a changing climate characterized by increased summer drought and heat stress in Europe, however, the uncertainty in climate predictions means crop scientists and breeders with limited time and resources must focus on the most important traits for improvement.

Mikhail Semenov and Peter Shewry’s work was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), the researchers used a wheat simulation model combined with local-scale climate models to predict the impacts of climate change on European winter wheat yield.

Drought has been considered to be the most significant environmental stress in agriculture world-wide and 2011 wheat yields across Europe are predicted to be below the 5 year average as a result of the arid spring. However, the new analysis indicates that a more serious threat for wheat production in Europe may result from an increase in the frequency and magnitude of heat stress around flowering, which could potentially lead to significant yield losses for heat-sensitive wheat varieties commonly grown in northern Europe.

Prof. Maurice Moloney, Director of Rothamsted Research, said “The work of Professors Semenov and Shewry highlights the importance of mathematical modelling of dynamic agricultural systems: a procedure which often yields unexpected answers. These results give guidance to Rothamsted's 20: 20 wheat strategy and suggest novel breeding targets for UK crops."