Peter Griffith.

2013 is currently on course to be among the top ten warmest years since records began in 1850, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The first nine months tied with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period on record, with a global land and ocean surface temperature of about 0.48°C above the 1961–1990 average.

January-September 2013 was warmer than the same period in both 2011 and 2012, when La Niña had a cooling influence. In contrast with 2012, when the United States, in particular, observed record high annual temperatures, the heat in 2013 was most extreme in Australia.

"Temperatures so far this year are about the same as the average during 2001-2010, which was the warmest decade on record," said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. "All of the warmest years have been since 1998 and this year once again continues the underlying, long-term trend. The coldest years now are warmer than the hottest years before 1998," he said.

"Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases reached new highs in 2012, and we expect them to reach unprecedented levels yet again in 2013. This means that we are committed to a warmer future. The impact on our water cycle is already becoming apparent – as manifested by droughts, floods and extreme precipitation." added Mr Jarraud.

A recently leaked draft IPPC report states that local temperature increases of 1 degree or more above preindustrial levels will reduce yields for wheat, rice and maize in tropical and temperate regions.  The report concludes that whilst some areas may see an increase in crop yields the overall picture will be a decline in crop yields. They state that global agricultural production could reduce by as much as 2% per decade for the rest of the century.

However, many have argued that these predictions are pessimistic, scaremongering and probably wrong citing met-office data that shows that global warming has not increased over the last 15 years arguing that global warming probably isn’t happening at all. But a paper published last week in the Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society shows global temperatures have not flat-lined but have continued to increase. The authors of the paper argue that climatologists have been looking at the wrong data or to put it more accurately they haven't been looking at enough data. The dataset that has been used to date covers on average about 84% of the globe with the unsampled regions being concentrated at the poles and over Africa. But when these missing datasets are included the temperature trend in degrees centigrade over the past 16 years rises from 0.05°C to 0.12°C, a 2.5 times increase in previously published data.

The National Adaptation Plan

Dr Jason Lowe, Chief Scientist at the met-office speaking at last month's event on UK climate change policy warned that in the longer term there’s a trend towards warmer wetter winters and hotter drier summers, summer droughts and more extreme weather events.

So what is UK agriculture’s National Adaptation Plan? Dr Ceris Jones of the NFU said that measures that farmers are implementing that will improve the resilience of their businesses include rainwater harvesting and improving irrigation efficiency. "However, our industry is very vulnerable to extreme events; we estimated that agriculture lost £1.3bn as a result of last year’s seemingly never ending rain." She argued that as part of UK agriculture's adaptation plan to climate change water storage through rain water catchment systems and more on farm reservoirs are needed. In the case of too much water flood defences were paramount and although this was part of the Environment Agency's National Adaptation Plan, flooding of agricultural land has not received enough attention. The influence of climate change on British agriculture will impact on food security for the UK. The UK Agriculture’s National Adaptation plan needs not only to look at water use but also at current farming systems. Too much dependence upon a limited cropping or animal husbandry system will increase the risk of failure in a climate prone to extreme weather events.

A PwC report looking at the wider impact of climate change on the UK identified amongst the top threats food supplies to and from the UK and food prices. Ipsos MORI also found that amongst the general public there are high levels of concern about the possibility of poor harvests pushing up food prices, and about water shortages. The researchers for Ipsos Mori concluded the signs are that the UK public would support adaptation to prepare for climate risks, particularly those that could threaten human life, the economy and productive agricultural land. It is probable, however, that the public will look to government to take the lead. Is it likely, therefore, that the public would find palatable government legislation via CAP reform as a means of implementing a National Adaptation Plan for agriculture?

Links

WMO’s provisional annual statement on the Status of the Global Climate 2013

Climate Change Seen Posing Risk to Food Supplies. NewYork Times

Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society October 2013

Adapting to climate change: national adaptation programme

The National Adaptation Programme Making the country resilient to a changing climate

The recent pause in warming - Met Office

Guide to climate change science - Met Office

Next steps for UK climate change policy: delivering the National Adaptation Programme