Extinctions related to climate change have already happened in hundreds of plant and animal species around the world. New research, published on Thursday, looked at almost 1,000 species of plant and animal and revealed that nearly half (47%) of them had experienced local extinctions as a result of climate change.

Climate change is predicted to threaten many species with extinction, and determining how species will respond to changes is difficult. The State of Nature report, which was published in September and looked at the fortunes of thousands of plant and animal species in the UK, revealed that, whilst climate change is currently having a mixed effect on wildlife and biodiversity in our maritime climate, agriculture is the main driving force behind species decline.  

However, the UK’s position in northern Europe makes it a destination that species will begin to shift to as climate change progresses; dozens of studies have already demonstrated that species are shifting their geographic ranges over time as the climate warms, towards cooler habitats at higher altitudes and latitudes.

this new research, by Professor John J. Wiens from the University of Arizona used existing research on shifting ranges of species to show that local extinctions have already happened in the warmest parts of the ranges of more than 450 of the 976 species studied. This result is particularly striking because global warming has increased mean temperatures by less than 1 degree Celsius so far. These extinctions will almost certainly become much more widespread over time, because temperatures are predicted to increase by an additional 1 to 5 degrees in the next few decades.

Although the climate agreement struck last year in Paris aims to keep global warming under 2oC, this rise in temperature will clearly lead to further impacts on wild species, and experts have warned that the targets set in the agreement (which is now legally binding) won't be met without serious political will.

According to Prof Wien’s research, local extinctions varied by region and were almost twice as common among tropical species as among temperate species. This is worrying, as the majority of plant and animal species live in the tropics.