Nearly half of the wheat area is now harvested report the Buenos Aires Grains exchange, with an average yield so far of 1.98 T/Ha.

Progress has been delayed by rain during the last seven days and the harvest yet to begin in the wheat areas of the South of Buenos Aires. The Southwest of Buenos Aires which has around 33 % of the national wheat crop is waiting to start harvest, and it is still expected to give an average yield of aroundnear to 3.0 T/Ha nationwide. The Southeast of Buenos Aires contributes 39 % of the national wheat crop and the average yield expectation for this region is in excess of 4.0 T/Ha.

Nevertheless, the wheat yields expected in these regions are not better than the production obtained in the last two seasons. Consequently, a week after the beginning of the harvest in the main wheat areas of the country, the results obtained will not offset the sharp yield falls reported in the rest of the national agricultural area.

"Within this context, we will adjust our production estimate to 9,800,000 tons, which results in a cutback of -320,000 tons compared to our previous issue, and a drop of -30 % as compared to the previous season."

Global wheat stocks higher

However, the latest WASDE report (Dec 11) puts Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 at a projected 1.6 million tons higher as a 3.7-million-ton increase in world production more than offsets lower beginning stocks mostly reflecting higher 2011/12 wheat feeding for China. China wheat production for 2012/13 is raised 2.6 million tons based on the latest official estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Production for Australia and Canada are raised 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, also based on the latest official government estimates. Partly offsetting these increases are small reductions for Brazil and EU-27.