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Global wheat supplies

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 3.1 million tons lower mostly due to lower expected production in Russia. An increase in foreign beginning stocks partly offsets the projected 4.1-millionton reduction in world wheat output. Beginning stocks are raised for Canada and Egypt, but lowered for Argentina. Production for Russia is reduced 4.0 million tons with lower reported area and reduced yields as harvest results confirm additional drought and heat damage to both the winter and spring wheat crops. Production is also lowered 0.5 million tons for adjoining Kazakhstan, which experienced the same adverse drought and heat during July and August that affected spring wheat in the central and eastern growing regions of Russia. EU-27 production is lowered 0.5 million tons mostly reflecting lower expected yields in the United Kingdom. Ukraine production is raised 0.5 million tons based on higher reported yields. Production for Afghanistan is raised 0.4 million tons mostly on higher reported area.

Global wheat consumption

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 2.6 million tons mostly on lower wheat feed and residual use in Russia and Kazakhstan. Food use is also lowered slightly for both countries with additional reductions projected for food use in Egypt and Nigeria. Food use is raised for Afghanistan, Iran, and Libya.

Global wheat trade

Global wheat trade for 2012/13 is lowered slightly this month with imports reduced for China, Egypt, EU-27, Israel, and Nigeria. Import increases for Turkey and Iran limit the global decline in trade. Exports are reduced 2.0 million tons for Ukraine based on the recent agreement between government officials and grain traders to limit shipments because of concerns about tightening domestic supplies. Higher expected exports for Brazil, EU-27, and Turkey mostly make up for the Ukraine reduction.

World ending stocks

World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 0.5 million tons lower with changes to a number of countries. The largest declines in stocks are for Russia, EU-27, China, Brazil, and Argentina. The largest increases are for Ukraine, Canada, Iran, and Turkey.

Global coarse grain supplies

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 4.0 million tons lower despite higher beginning stocks of corn in the United States and barley in Canada. Reduced corn production prospects for EU-27, Serbia, and Canada add to the decline in the United States to reduce world corn output 8.0 million tons. Higher barley production for EU-27 and Canada mostly offset reductions in oats, barley, rye, and millet production in Russia. Corn production is lowered 4.4 million tons for EU-27 with yield reductions for France, Italy, Romania, and Hungary as extended drought and heat in August further reduced production prospects across southern Europe. Serbia production is also lowered 1.2 million tons reflecting the same adverse weather conditions. Canada corn production is lowered 1.1 million tons based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada.

Global 2012/13 corn exports

Global 2012/13 corn exports are lowered 1.8 million tons this month with the largest reduction for the United States. Corn exports are also lowered for Serbia and EU-27. Partly offsetting these reductions is a 1.0-million-ton increase for Brazil exports. Lower barley exports from Russia are more than offset with increases for Canada, Ukraine, and EU-27. Foreign coarse grain consumption is lowered mostly on lower corn usage. Corn feeding is lowered 4.0 million tons for the EU-27, 1.0 million tons for Canada, and 0.4 million tons for Serbia. Corn feeding is raised 0.8 million tons for Egypt. Barley feeding is raised 1.0 million tons for EU-27, 0.9 million tons for Canada, and 0.2 million tons for Iran. Barley feeding is lowered 0.5 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.2 million tons for Russia.

Global corn ending stocks are projected 0.6 million tons higher with the increase for the United States partly offset by a reduction for Brazil. 

Global oilseed production

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 453.1 million tons, down 4.2 million from last month. Reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed are only partly offset by increased peanut and cottonseed production. In addition to the United States, projected soybean production is reduced for Ukraine and Canada. Early harvest results for Ukraine indicate a lower yield in part reflecting unusually hot temperatures during the growing season. Lower soybean production for Canada is based on the most recent crop survey results reported by Statistics Canada. Rapeseed production for Canada is reduced 0.9 million tons to 15.4 million based on lower yields and harvested area reported by Statistics Canada. At this level the crop is record large. Rapeseed production is also raised for the 2011 crop based on the latest Statistics Canada estimates. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for EU-27, lower sunflowerseed production for Russia, Ukraine, and EU-27, and lower cottonseed production for Brazil.

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