In releasing the first ever comprehensive report on sub-Saharan Africa's economic and biological potential for producing wheat, scientists said today that the region's farmers may be growing only 10 to 25 percent of the production the research suggests is both biologically possible and economically profitable. With rainwater alone, and with proper use of fertilisers, sustainable techniques and other investments, 20 to 100 percent of farmlands in the 12 nations studied appear to be ecologically suitable for increases in wheat farming, according to an analysis based on advanced computer modelling techniques.

The analysis, prepared by researchers at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), supported by the World Bank and European Commission, has been published at a time of grave concern over the collocation of increases in the world population, a series of poor harvests due to drought conditions around the world and resultant record grain prices. The researchers suggested eight of the countries examined could become more self-sufficient in wheat production as hedge against increasingly expensive imports.

Burgeoning populations and rapid urbanization in Africa are pushing up domestic imports of wheat, and the grain has become increasingly expensive, prompting the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation to warn that the world’s poorest may be unable to access the food they need.  

The authors warned of the need for further analysis to address the economic, social and environmental impact of boosting wheat production on the rich agricultural lands of eastern and southern Africa.

The researchers acknowledged that, "Because of the 'broad-brush' nature of the model used, harvest and profitability projections may be higher than what is likely to occur on–the-ground."

In 2012, African countries will spend about US$12 billion to import some 40 million tons of wheat, particularly for people who live in rapidly growing cities. However, across the continent, which accounts for 15 percent of the global market for wheat, farmers produce only 44 percent of the wheat consumed locally. "These trends threaten the nutritional and national security of the region," said Shiferaw. "If Africa does not push for wheat self-sufficiency, it could face more hunger [and] instability."

The analysis focused on Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. While each of the 12 countries has certain areas that could be “profitable for competitive domestic production”, simulated yields were highest in the highland production systems of eastern and Central Africa, including Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Tanzania and Uganda.

Although the study’s authors are advocating the intensification of green revolution agricultural techniques and a market-centric approach to achieving food security, studies conducted into the potential of agroecology show the novel approach can improve yields by a large amount, whilst providing social and environmental benefits. Agroecology applies ecological science to the design of agricultural systems that can help put an end to food crises and address climate-change and poverty challenges. It enhances soils productivity and protects the crops against pests by relying on the natural environment such as beneficial trees, plants, animals and insects.

UN rapporteur Olivier de Schutter revealed last year that agroecological methods could drastically improve productivity in a variety of regions including a number of nations in Africa and South-East Asia. Upon releasing his report on Agroecology and the Right to Food, De Schutter said, “We urgently need to adopt the most efficient farming techniques available. Today’s scientific evidence demonstrates that agroecological methods outperform the use of chemical fertilizers in boosting food production where the hungry live – especially in unfavorable environments.”

De Schutter revealed, “To date, agroecological projects have shown an average crop yield increase of 80% in 57 developing countries, with an average increase of 116% for all African projects.Recent projects conducted in 20 African countries demonstrated a doubling of crop yields over a period of 3-10 years.

Making the case for a paradigm shift towards an agroecological approach, he concluded, “Conventional farming relies on expensive inputs, fuels climate change and is not resilient to climatic shocks. It simply is not the best choice anymore today. A large segment of the scientific community now acknowledges the positive impacts of agroecology on food production, poverty alleviation and climate change mitigation.”

Nevertheless, the CIMMYT researchers recommended a raft of their own measures to fulfill the promise in the nations identified as having great potential for increased wheat production/ They advised governments and development agencies to invest significantly in required infrastructure and technical support, which would include:

• More detailed analysis of profitable ways to expand wheat production in Africa.
• New, improved wheat varieties suited for different wheat-growing zones in Africa.
• An effective and vibrant seed sector to ensure that seed of improved varieties is multiplied and marketed to farmers.
• Effective extension services to introduce new wheat varieties and cropping techniques to smallholder farmers.
• Improved practices for processing, storing and delivering wheat to market after harvest.
• Development of farm-to-market value chains for wheat producers to supply grain at internationally competitive prices.
• Improvements in wheat import, trade and food aid policies to prevent local producers from being crowded out.
• Information on what would help locally grown wheat compete with imports in terms of taste, quality, and needs of local manufacturers.
• Data on the potential for producing wheat profitably using irrigation, which would allow some farmers to make money growing wheat during the dry season.

Mahmoud Solh, Director General of the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) said "This study suggests that if the right things are done to support farmers, whether now or in the future, we could see a dramatic improvement in Africa's ability to feed itself by producing major staples locally, including wheat." Nevertheless, proposal of market-based solutions to social and structural problems may cause concern, especially amongst advocates of sustainable farming, who suggest a shift away from neoliberal dogma is necessary to ensure that everyone around the world has enough to eat, in spite of an increasing world population and the threat of climate change.

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