Independent agronomy central to improving arable profitability

Independent agronomists have a critical role to play in helping UK arable businesses remain profitable amid rising costs, volatile markets, and increasing climatic pressure, according to Ceres Rural’s Dan Matthews.

Speaking at the Association of Independent Crop Consultants (AICC) annual technical conference, he outlined how arable farming is facing a “perfect storm” of flatlining yields, high input costs, reduced direct support, and exposure to global commodity markets over which growers have little control.

“Profitability must come first. Without profitability, sustainability is not achievable,” said Dan, who is also an AICC director.

“The challenge for arable businesses today is not just about yield, but managing volatility, risk, and margins far more precisely than in the past.”

Inputs and yield

Drawing on long-term benchmarking and performance data, he highlighted that there is no strong correlation between total variable input spend and grain yield.

Instead, yield and profitability are primarily driven by management decisions made at a field and crop level.

Dan added that independent agronomy is central to this process, enabling growers to align inputs with real crop potential rather than historic averages, flex to seasonal conditions, and avoid over-investment driven by fear rather than evidence.

In an environment where yield potential can deteriorate rapidly, particularly in challenging seasons, the financial impact of these decisions has never been greater.

According to an analysis of wheat crops across a broad sample of Ceres Rural’s clients’ farms, higher yields were not simply the result of higher spend, but of better targeting of sprays and fertiliser in response to disease pressure and yield potential.

In many cases, relatively small reductions in input costs, when combined with sound crop management, delivered double-digit percentage improvements in profitability.

High variable costs

Dan also highlighted the structural challenges facing UK arable farming. On a global comparison, the UK has some of the highest variable costs of wheat production, driven by climate, pest and disease pressure, and regulatory constraints.

With inflation eroding returns and input prices remaining stubbornly elevated, scrutiny of cost and performance is now essential rather than optional.

“In this environment, independent advice becomes more valuable, not less,” he told delegates.

“The margin for error is smaller, and every decision carries more weight.”

Looking ahead, he said the role of the independent agronomist will continue to grow as farming systems adapt to increasing volatility.

Resilient systems

He emphasised the need to build systems resilient to extreme seasons rather than average years, strengthen soils and rotations to underpin reliable yields, and make greater use of benchmarking, data, and peer-to-peer learning to drive improvement.

Dan also cautioned that while technology offers significant potential, its value lies in evidence-based application rather than innovation for its own sake. Independent agronomy provides the critical filter between innovation and on-farm decision-making.

“Evidence from long-term data is clear. Yield is a function of management, not inputs alone.

“Independent agronomy plays a vital role in helping arable businesses invest wisely, manage risk, and remain profitable in an increasingly uncertain operating environment,” he concluded.

Arable profitability - Key Points

• Profitability comes before sustainability
• Yield is driven by management, not spend
• Targeted inputs protect margins in volatile seasons
• Independent agronomy delivers better decisions and stronger returns