On Wednesday 2 April 2025, President Trump announced that the United States (US) would be implementing at least a 10% tariff on all imports effective from 5 April 2025.

Several countries will be subject to country specific tariffs that will take effect on 9 April 2025. This includes 20% tariff for the EU and 54% for China (including previous tariffs announced). The 25% on Canada and Mexico that were announced last month will be unchanged. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has conducted some initial analysis on the US imposing the 10% tariff on UK exports.

Jess Corsair, AHDB Senior Economist, said: "These announcements go against the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which aims to facilitate free, predictable and smooth global trade. The new imposed tariffs will increase barriers to trade globally. The WTO also has the "most-favored nation" (MFN) principle which means that countries cannot discriminate between their trading partners, so all members are treated equally when it comes to trade. This principle has been ignored as the US has implemented different tariffs on different countries.

"The UK's main exports to the US include machinery, cars, pharmaceuticals, fishing and electronics. The announcements also included a 25% tariff on foreign made cars. There are potential global economic implications from these announcements, as we have seen on global stock markets this morning. There could also be impacts on inflation as tariffs make imported goods more expensive, and as well as slowing down global trade volumes and subsequently slowing global economic growth. We explored the impact of tariffs on the global economy in a previous article."

The main agricultural exporters to the US are Canada, Mexico, the EU, Australia and New Zealand. The US imported £7bn of beef, £1.2bn of pork, £1.14bn sheep meat and £1.4bn of cheese (2022-24 3 year average).

The main exporters of beef to the US include:

·       Canada - £1.07 billion (3-year average 2022-24)

·       Mexico - £1.41 billion (3-year average 2022-24)

·       Australia – £1.48 billion (3-year average 2022-24)

·       New Zealand - £784 million (3-year average 2022-24)

The main exporters of pork to the US include:

·       Canada - £754 million (3-year average 2022-24)

·       EU - £241 million (3-year average 2022-24)

·       Mexico - £119 million (3-year average 2022-24)

The main exporters of cheese to the US include:

·       EU - £1.02 billion (3-year average 2022-24)

·       UK - £68 million (3-year average 2022-24)

·       Canada - £57 million (3-year average 2022-24)

Jess added: "This will be a major disruptor of global trade, but the impacts will be difficult to predict until we know how the various trading partners will react. As this starts to become clear we will be able to examine the impacts on the UK and global markets. It is likely that there will be changes to trade flows and we will examine the impact how trade will be displaced especially with key agricultural exporters such as Canada, Mexico, Australia and New Zealand."

The UK exports to the US include:

·       £2.9 million of fresh and frozen beef (3-year average 2022-24)

·       £23 million of pork (3-year average 2022-24)

·       £68 million of cheese (3-year average 2022-24)

Jess said: "Currently the UK has access to the US rest of the world quota for beef exports. This quota was filled by 17 January in 2025, and then any beef exports are subject to tariffs of 26.4%. It is unclear whether the new 10% tariffs will be additional to the current 26.4% tariff. Additionally, it is unclear whether the 10% tariff will be additional to those countries who already have Free Trade Agreements in place.

"Further clarification is needed regarding the how these tariffs will be implemented alongside current FTAs, quotas and agreements. AHDB will be monitoring this and doing more in-depth analysis on the implication of the tariffs on global trade and the economy."