Will Ringrose, ADM Agriculture’s head of oilseeds, comments on the OSR market

Hemswell, Lincolnshire, 11 November 2021

Oilseeds values surged following the surprisingly bullish USDA world supply and demand report released on Tuesday, moving UK rapeseed towards £600/t.

Chicago soybean values closed 21 cents/bushel higher at the end of Tuesday’s session, 14 cents off the high but 28 cents up off the low. Meal and soy oil also rose. 

Soybean prices continued to strengthen on Wednesday, closing out 6 cents off the high on the November position. Most months held on during trading on Thursday morning, though the front month slipped about 3 cents.

Canadian canola futures rallied to close over $1000, a level the market has been targeting for the past few weeks. 

In turn, Matif rapeseed rose €11 midweek to a new contract high. This put UK rapeseed close to £600/t ex-farm on the shorter hauls, which may well meet many sellers’ aspirations. 

Malaysian palm futures rallied 2.85% to highs, but slipped Thursday morning following a €3 fall in crude oil values, triggered by an increase in US inflation and the stronger dollar. USDA announced a sales of 22,000mt of soy-oil to an unknown destination which lent some support.

In more detail, the USDA report reduced US yields to 51.2 bushels/acre compared with trade expectations of 52 bpa, lowering estimated output.  Exports were reduced, but US and global ending stocks came in below expectations.  

Brazilian soybean production was left unchanged at 144mln t, while Argentinian output was cut by 1.5mln t to 49.5mln t.

South American crop prospects look favourable. Plantings continue at a rapid pace, which will push new crop beans onto the market earlier in 2022. AgRural estimates Brazilian plantings at 67% complete, compared with 52% last week and 56% last year.

USDA left the soybean crush and oil demand unchanged, increased soy oil stocks, but left rapeseed output much the same.