Farming News - ADM Agriculture Wheat and Oilseed Rape Market Report

ADM Agriculture Wheat and Oilseed Rape Market Report

Jonathan Lane, ADM Agriculture’s head of grain trading, comments on the wheat market

Expected declines in Russian and European exports from early in the new year continue to support the global market outlook as the Australian harvest commences amid reports of heavy rains.

The US market has posted a 10c/bushel gain on the week, the equivalent of  $3.67/t, while France’s near-month MATIF futures achieved fresh contract highs this week as prices soared to their highest level since 2008.

UK futures made £4-6/t gains week on week for new and old crop respectively, following the firmer trend set in both European and US markets. 

In its latest report, the International Grain Council left its forecast for the global 2021/22 wheat crop unchanged at 781mln t, whilst raising the corn crop 1mln t to 1,210mln t.

Global prices should also remain supported well into 2022 as dryness concerns across the US southern plains and the Black Sea region remain.

Surging prices do mean EU supplies are losing export competitiveness, although exports will rise compared with last year, factoring in a bigger EU crop.

Russia has shipped a 60,000t vessel to Algeria, the first since 2016, after the North African country eased requirements relating to bug damage.

Russian wheat exports amounted to 14.7mln t as of 21 October, down 12% on the year, due to official customs inspection prior to export.

Ukrainian farmers continue to harvest corn, but wheat and barley harvests are complete. The wheat figure of 32.3mln t is about 30% up on the year, but has been factored into the market for some time. Average yields are reported at 4.62t/ha.

Egypt’s state buyer GASC purchased 360,000t in its latest tender for Dec 1-10 shipment, including 180,000t Russian, 120,000t Ukrainian and 60,000t of Romanian wheat.

Morocco is to suspend its wheat import tax duties on soft and hard wheat starting 1 November as the country aims to stabilise escalating domestic prices.

EU soft wheat shipments had reached 8.99mln t as of 24 Oct, compared with 7.23mln t last year.

French soft wheat plantings were 40% complete as of 18 October, in line with last year – corn harvest is lagging at 32% complete compared with 75% last year.

In the UK, demand for milling wheat is strong and all wheat needs sampling to establish its true value.

Will Ringrose, ADM Agriculture’s head of oilseeds, comments on the OSR market

US weather shows rain in the forecast for this week and next before turning dry again. The US soybean harvest has slowed due to the wet weather but is reported to be close to 75% complete.

In South American soybean plantings in Brazil continue at a fast pace and the weather outlook looks good. Some organisations are calling for farmers to use less fertiliser given the rise in costs.

China is reported to have purchased several cargoes of US soybeans this week. US and Chinese officials met yesterday to discuss plans for the phase-one trade agreement which expires in December, but no official announcements were made. Covid cases are rising again in China, which is causing concern over new lockdown measures and the knock-on effect it will have on the economy.

Oil markets looked overbought, crude oil slipped back from its recent highs with all energy markets retracting. Palm and soy oil both followed and struggled to get any support.

Canadian canola traded over €22 higher in yesterday’s session with November futures heading towards $1000.

Matif rapeseed yet again surprised everyone by trading at highs once again. November futures expire tomorrow.

UK rapeseed prices are still trading close to highs.