Will Ringrose, ADM Agriculture’s head of oilseeds, comments on the OSR market

Hemswell, Lincolnshire, 17 December 2020

After a pretty lacklustre start to the week, CBOT soybeans attempted to break through $12/bushel once again. The National Oilseed Processors Association released the latest November soybean crush figures, stating another monthly record, one million bushels higher than trade estimates. 

South American weather will still be watched closely. Forecasts now show rain for Argentina over the weekend, but turning dry beyond that. Brazil remains largely dry at the moment with little to no rain in the forecast. Workers in Argentina are striking again over pay, which will hinder logistics, but are likely to be short lived.

Soybean plantings are 95% complete, in line with the five-year average, but it will be interesting to see what needs redrilling. Brazilian crop estimates are still being lowered, mostly ranging from 127mln to 133mln t. 

Plantings in Argentina are reported at 62% complete compared with 54% last week, but close to the five-year average of 63%.

According to reports, China’s pig herd has now recovered over 90% of its normal levels from the African Swine Fever pandemic. Numbers are expected to return to normal in early 2021. 

Matif rapeseed rallied to three-week highs this week on the back of firmer US soybean and veg oil markets. Prices are now returning to the top end of the recent range. 

Sterling has firmed from the lows of the week, but Brexit negotiations will keep prices volatile.