With less than one month to go until AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds’ Grain Market Outlook Conference, global political developments and trade continue to affect the grain and oilseeds markets.

Jack Watts, Lead Analyst, AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds, gives his view on what to expect at this year’s conference, and how this fits with current cereal and oilseed market trends.

Why did you chose the theme of this year’s conference?

Trade and trade policy are becoming increasingly important to the functioning of the global grain and oilseed market. It is essential to connect regions of surplus with deficit as efficiently as possible. This requires good trade politics, which is always evolving. The anticipated opening up of the Chinese barley market to UK exports is a real positive, while the Russian wheat export tax brings substantial uncertainty to the functioning of global wheat trade. Longer term, the TTIP could be a real game-changer with potential implications for food and raw material trade between the EU and US.

Which trade policies have been big news recently?

Front of mind for many is the Russian import restriction on many food commodities emanating from the EU. Although not directly impacting cereals and oilseeds, there could be knock-on implications through weaker livestock margins that could create a depressed feed demand. The Russian tax on wheat exports is probably more relevant to the grain market as it introduces politics into the equation which moves global wheat trade beyond the realms of free market economics.

Is it possible to say what the main market driver has been since last year’s conference?

2015 represents a third consecutively good growing year for key regions of global grain production such as the US, Europe, Russia and Ukraine. This has given markets confidence in global feed grain supplies, which was very fragile in 2010-13, pushing prices lower.

The million-dollar question – what’s the outlook for the grain/oilseeds market like?

Longer term, we can’t really expect to see a continued trend of good weather across the world. Weather will happen and will impact prices; we just don’t know when. Despite current prices, global feed grain, i.e. maize stocks relative to demand are quite fragile so it wouldn’t take a massive issue for global maize prices to lend support to UK prices. For this season though, on the whole, prices should remain low, but rallies in price are likely to occur which shouldn’t be ignored and should be treated as opportunities for sellers to boost the overall average.
The full line-up of speakers at the Grain Market Outlook Conference 2015 is:

• Jack Watts – Lead Analyst, AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds: 2015/16 Grain market outlook
• Julian McGill – Senior Economist, LMC International Ltd: 2015/16 Oilseeds market outlook
• Hamish Smith – Commodities Economist, Capital Economics: Global macroeconomic outlook and implications for agricultural commodities
• Dominic Watkins – Partner and Head of Food Group, DWF: TTIP – the good, the bad and the ugly

AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds’ flagship conference takes place at the Grange Tower Bridge Hotel in London on Wednesday 14 October 2015.
Book online, contact cereals.events@ahdb.org.uk or call 0247 647 8726.