The UN’s meteorological agency WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) has announced that 2016 is set to be the hottest year on record, breaking the previous record set last year. The announcement was made to coincide with the COP 22 Climate Talks in Marrakech, which have been largely overshadowed by the election of Donald Trump as US President.

WMO announced on Monday that it is “Very likely” that 2016 will be another record breaking year. If this is the case all of the five hottest years on record will have occurred since 2010 (2005 currently holds the number five spot), and 16 of the 17 hottest years on record will have occurred since the Millennium (1998 being the only year from last century in the running). The El Nino event, which also affected temperatures in 2015, had an impact on temperatures in the early months of this year, and data from October suggest the month has remained warm enough to break records.  

Preliminary data show 2016’s global temperatures are approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial averages. Global temperatures for January to September 2016 were about 0.88° Celsius above average for the years 1961-1990, which is used as a baseline by climate scientists.   

Other worrying records set to be broken in 2016 include higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere and lower levels of arctic sea ice.

On Monday, WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said,  “Another year. Another record. The high temperatures we saw in 2015 are set to be beaten in 2016. The extra heat from the powerful El Niño event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue.”

Taalas said, “In parts of Arctic Russia, temperatures were 6°C to 7°C above the long-term average. Many other Arctic and sub-Arctic regions in Russia, Alaska and northwest Canada were at least 3°C above average. We are used to measuring temperature records in fractions of a degree, and so this is different. Because of climate change, the occurrence and impact of extreme events has risen. ‘Once in a generation’ heatwaves and flooding are becoming more regular.  Sea level rise has increased exposure to storm surges associated with tropical cyclones.”

The WMO Secretary-General noted that the Paris Agreement to limit the impacts humans are having on the climate became legally binding in record time and with record support from world governments, however, the election of Trump, who is reportedly “Not a great believer in climate change” has given rise to concerns that his administration could attempt to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement.

WMO’s Taalas also noted that the ‘fingerprints’ of humanity’s impacts on the climate through GHG emissions can now be matched to extreme weather events. The UN Organisation wants to see more weather forecasts and early warning systems to help people adapt to inevitable climate change, and reduce loss of life from extreme weather evens such as flooding, storms and drought.

According to the UN, severe and unpredictable weather events and other impacts associated with climate change led to almost 20 million people (from over 100 countries) moving from their homes in 2015; this means the number of people displaced by climate change last year was almost twice as great as those displaced by war.