The UK is unprepared for the most complex ever change to its food system, which Brexit will bring, according to a new briefing paper published by SPRU, the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex.

The report was written by three of the UK's leading food and agricultural policy analysts, who used industry and government data and interviews with senior figures from across the food chain to look across traditional sectoral boundaries, taking in farming, employment, quality, safety standards and the environment.

It suggests, amongst other things that imported goods prices could see hikes of almost a quarter (22%) if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal in place. PM Theresa May and her minority government have been criticised for their repeated claims ahead of Brexit negotiations that “No deal would be better than a bad deal” for Britain.

Professors Erik Millstone (University of Sussex), Tim Lang (City, University of London) and Terry Marsden (Cardiff University) highlight the lack of a Government vision for UK food or agriculture as a factor that could make Brexit impacts worse. Professor Lang commented, "UK food security and sustainability are now at stake. A food system which has an estimated three to five days of stocks cannot just walk away from the EU, which provides us with 31 per cent of our food. Anyone who thinks that this will be simple is ill-informed."

The experts warn that British consumers have not been informed about the "enormous" implications for their food, a third of which comes from within the European Union, and find that even a ‘soft Brexit’ will affect the price, quality, supply of food and carry environmental impacts. Professor Millstone said, "In the EU, UK consumers and public health have benefited from EU-wide safety standards, without which there will be a risk of the UK having less safe and nutritious products."

The three professors have produced a list of 16 key issues which they say ministers urgently need to address, as Article 50 has been triggered and talks on the UK’s departure have already begun. These are:

• The urgent need for a clear integrated plan for UK food - the UK government currently has no overarching UK food policy;
• Clarification on food crossing borders, particularly from the Republic of Ireland to Northern Ireland;
• New legislation to replace 4,000 pieces of EU law relating to food;
• Scientific and regulatory infrastructure - an indication of what will replace at least 30 EU-based bodies;
• Farm subsidies to replace the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP);
• Fishing policies that are more than rejecting the 1964 pre-EU London Convention;
• Food labour - 35 per cent of food manufacturing labour is from the EU, though certain areas within the catering sector and horticulture employ a much higher proportion of EU workers than this;
• Where UK food will come from while trade deals are being brokered - Only 54-61 percent of food consumed in Britain is grown here;
• Tariffs - industry says tariffs could raise imported food prices by 22 per cent post-Brexit;
• Prices, which are already rising and likely to rise more, will become more volatile, especially harming poor consumers;
• Quality standards throughout supply chains, which are currently set by the EU (Defra Secretary Michael Gove has suggested in interviews that the UK will maintain standards, but there have been no firm policy promises to back up his claims).

On the report’s release, Professors Millstone, Lang and Marsden said there findings should act as a wake-up call to the public and a Government, highlighting that Brexit is happening at a time when the UK food system is already vulnerable, with self-sufficiency in decline, and warning that the public haven’t been made aware of the serious risks to their health and wellbeing that Brexit disruptions will bring.  

To minimise the impacts, the researchers want the government to develop a holistic food policy, which looks across traditional sectors and government departments; make food and farming policy commitments to a low-impact, health-oriented UK food system; Commit to the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris climate agreement in any new food framework; and establish a new National Commission on Food and Agriculture to provide oversight and review, and to be a source of advice trusted by the British public.

On Monday, Professor Millstone said, "Since the Brexit referendum UK food and agricultural policy has been in chaos. Not only have ministers yet to develop a strategy or make decisions, they have not even grasped the issues about which urgent decisions are needed. Unless things change rapidly, and in line with our recommendations, the UK will not only have policy chaos, the food system itself will become increasingly chaotic."

Professor Lang added, "At least the UK entered World War Two with emergency plans. No-one has warned the public that a Food Brexit carries real risks of disruption to [food] sources, prices and quality. There is solid evidence about vulnerabilities ranging from diet-related ill-health to ecosystems stress.

"Food is the biggest slice of EU-related regulations and laws, yet so far the Government has only sketchily flagged a new Agriculture Act and Fisheries Act in the Queen's Speech. British consumers spend £201 billion on food a year, with the entire food chain contributing about £110 billion gross value added (GVA). Of this, agriculture accounts for less than £9 billion GVA, and fisheries £0.7 billion GVA.

"The Government has provided next to no details on agriculture and fisheries, and there has been total silence on the rest of the food chain where most employment, value adding and consumer choice are made. With the Brexit deadline in 20 months, this is a serious policy failure on an unprecedented scale. Anyone would think they want a drop into the World Trade Organisation abyss."