The total area of cereals and oilseeds for harvest 2015 in Great Britain is estimated at 3.72Mha, down 2% from 2014, according to the annual AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds Planting and Variety survey.

Anna Lockwood, AHDB Market Analyst, said: “A lower area planted to oilseed rape and the major cereals this year reflects evolving cropping patterns throughout Great Britain. Changes are likely to be in response to developing economic and agronomic trends.”

Key findings of the survey are:
• Total GB cereals and oilseed rape area at 3.72Mha, down 2% from 2014
• Total wheat area for GB estimated at 1.87Mha, down 3% from 2014
• Total barley area up by 3% to 1.09Mha, including a 4% increase for the winter barley area
• GB oilseed rape area down 7% from 2014 at 627,000ha
• GB oat area remains fairly stable at 137,000ha, up 1% from 2014

GB wheat area estimated at 1.87Mha – down 3%

At 1.87Mha, the GB wheat area estimate is 3% lower than the area for 2014. The wheat area in England is estimated at 1.74Mha, down 4% compared to last year, while in contrast, the area of wheat in Scotland has increased by 3,000ha since 2014. The higher Scottish wheat area partially offsets a decrease in barley area, which may well have occurred as a result of the three crop requirements under the reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

At a regional level, the area planted to wheat in the South East has dropped by a fairly notable 18,000ha (8%) since last year to an estimated 219,000ha, with marked declines across the eastern regions of England. Cultural control of black-grass, through the use of spring cropping, as well as implications of the three crop rule could be particular drivers of the declines in the wheat area.

Looking at wheat varieties, the level of nabim Group 1 wheat varieties grown in GB is down by only 1,000ha from 2014. However, the area attributed to Group 1 varieties this year is 107,000ha higher than the area seen in 2013.

New higher yielding varieties such as Skyfall, as well as higher milling wheat premiums, were expected to cease the decline in the Group 1 share of the wheat area this year. However, a bigger shift could well be seen for harvest 2016 due to the availability of additional bread milling varieties that may challenge group 4 yields, and entice growers back to Group 1s and 2s.

“The proportion of group 4 varieties has continued to increase this year, a trend that has been seen for several years now,” said Miss Lockwood.

Group 4 varieties are estimated to account for 63% of the GB wheat area, up from 58% in 2014, largely at the expense of Group 3s.

Total barley area estimated at 1.09Mha – up 3% on 2014

The overall estimated barley area in GB is 1.09Mha, 3% higher than in 2014, with increases for both winter and spring barley, of 4% and 2% respectively.

In Scotland the estimated total barley area is 309,000ha, down 6% from last year with declines for both winter and spring crops. At 258,000ha, the Scottish spring barley area would be the lowest since 2010, with the area swing possibly a consequence of the CAP three crop requirements.

In England, the estimated total barley area for harvest 2015 is 51,000ha higher than 2014. Regionally, the largest increases for spring barley have been seen in the Eastern, East Midlands and South East regions, likely to have been driven by efforts to control black-grass with spring cropping.

For winter barley, the area estimated for harvest 2015 is the largest that has been seen since 2003, with the biggest increases in the Eastern (13%), and East Midlands (11%) regions. The larger area is expected to be driven by the rise of high yielding feed varieties, enabling the crop to compete for a position in the rotation. Also the early entry for the following oilseed rape crop may also be an incentive for more winter barley to be grown.

Overall, malting varieties on the Institute of Brewing and Distilling approved list for harvest 2015 account for 58% of the total GB barley area. On a regional level the malting and feed splits remain largely comparable to last year. It is important to remember that the final malting availability will be strongly influenced by final yields and quality.

Total oilseed rape area falls by 7% since 2014

The survey indicates a 7% fall for the estimated oilseed rape area in GB in comparison to last year.  The largest area decreases have been seen for the Eastern and South East regions, with falls of 16,000ha and 11,000ha, respectively. The drop in the area is likely to be attributed to several factors including;

• The restriction of the use of neonicotinoid seed treatments, which deterred planting as well as causing some crop failure
• Low market prices against a back drop of the increasing risks of growing the crop
• Possible impacts of the three crop rule for farms with intensive wheat and oilseed rape rotations.

In contrast, the estimated oilseed rape area in Scotland remains largely unchanged at 37,000ha (1% higher than in 2014).

After being the most widely grown variety for the last four years, DK-Cabernet now shares the top spot with Incentive, each accounting for an estimated 9% of the GB area according to the survey.

For some of the other cereal break crops, the survey indicates that the area planted to peas and beans in GB has increased since 2014. Additionally, the area of fallow land is also higher than in 2014, although it is important to note the absolute areas remain relatively low in comparison.

The GB oat area remains largely stable

The total area planted to oats in GB is estimated at 137,000ha, up 1% from last year, although still considerably below 2013 levels, which were the highest seen in 36 years. The increase here could be a result of oats being used as a break crop, in the place of the declining oilseed rape area.

In contrast, the estimated area of oats in Scotland is down 2,000ha in comparison to 2014 and the lowest level seen since 2011.

Although estimations of the oat area are indicative figures, the area is relatively small in comparison to those for other cereal and oilseed crop areas; therefore estimations should be treated with some additional caution.

Further analysis will be published in an MI Prospects article on 9 July at cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets

Planting survey results are also available in an interactive format through the AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds Market Data Centre.